This Week's GOP Pleas to the Party Faithful
Actual document sent to us from our man inside the GOP, with annotations (in bold italics) supplied by Cheryl Seal
TO: Marc Racicot, Chairman, RNC
Jack Oliver, Deputy Chairman, RNC
FR: Matthew Dowd, Senior Adviser
RE: Current Political Environment/Strategy Recommendation
With a little over three weeks till Election Day the analysis below illustrates Republican opportunity in the current political landscape.
We thought "landscape" sounded better than "quagmire."
This memorandum reflects internal RNC polling conducted as recently as Thursday night (10/10/02).
"Internal polling" - that's how we always solve our problems - we ask ourselves the same questions over and over. That way we can always give the same answers.
As we approach the November mid-term election, the President and the Republican Party are in a historic and positive position.
Well, at least we're positive they may soon be history.
Since 1934, the incumbent party of the President has lost an average of 27 congressional seats in the first mid-term election. It now appears this mid-term will not follow the trend of history.
We're going to lose twice that many!
A few key factors have contributed to this dynamic in the past.
Two primary factors are the approval rating of the President and the public's support of the position party and its leaders. Historically, a President's approval rating is dismal during the first mid-term election.
Especially if his name happens to be BUSH!
The exception to that trend would be John F. Kennedy in 1962, who had a 60% approval rating going into his first mid-term election.
That's why the CIA had to bump him off.
Also historically, the opposing party has a major advantage over the President's party on favorability and key issues.
Esp. if the President's name happens to be BUSH!
There is significant evidence that this election is breaking from historical trends:
We don't think we've EVER seen so many angry people all at one time and frankly, that has us a little worried........
So, here's the spin we've spent days trying to work out to convince you poor dubs that all is well. Pay close attention, because it gets a bit convoluted in places...well, OK, REALLY CONVOLUTED in LOTS OF PLACES....but we think if you go over it a few times after a beer or two it just might work.
1) Historically, Republicans have success at the polls even when Democrats have a three to five point generic ballot advantage. Now on the generic ballot, Republican and Democratic candidates are tied and it has basically been this way for 7 months. So despite Democrat hopes that a variety of issues might work to their advantage, the generic ballot has not moved.
Run that past us again....slowly.
2) In past elections, Democrats have had a seven-point party favorability advantage. But, during the last seven months, Republicans have maintained a 2 to 6 point net favorability advantage and this week's polling is no different.
Of course, the "past election" we're referring to is the election of 1932 when anyone with a pulse running against Herbert Hoover woulda looked good.
3) President Bush's approval rating in all public and private polls continues to be above 60% as we predicted months ago. In fact, in our most recent poll, the President's approval rating is near 70%.
And we just offered Gallup a $2 million bonus to come up with a poll that tops 70% - that's twice what we've spent to rig any other poll so far!
4) There is no national Democratic leader with overwhelmingly positive ratings. Most of the Democrat Party leaders have significant unfavorable ratings or weak or anemic favorable ratings..
Of course, though the public has an "anemic" attitude toward the Dems, the very word "Republican" sends their blood pressure through the ceiling.
The last Democratic nominee for President, Al Gore, has high negatives and net unfavorables.
Course that's the same line we were giving out just before he won the majority vote in 2000.
This is a unique and dangerous position for the opposition party.
But not nearly as "unique" or "dangerous", of course as facing impeachment for inside trading, withholding information, lying to Congress and complicity in terrorism...but we won't worry about all that stuff now!
The following facts about the current issue landscape illustrate several Republican advantages:
1) Today the issues most important to voters are:
b) Terrorism/Security/Iraq, and
c) Education. This has been the case for 3 - 4 months now.
So, since we have failed miserably on all of these, we plan to base our entire platform on invading Iraq.
2) The public continues to be very concerned about the economy and is somewhat less optimistic than they were a few months ago.
Well, OK...so a few hundred thousand people have lost their homes, 41 million have no insurance and there's been talk of a lynch mob outside the courthouses where the Anderson and Enron cases are being tried...just promise them a few hundred bucks at tax time and they'll forget all that little stuff!
Further, a majority of the public thinks the economy is going in the wrong direction, not the right direction.
Backwards and downhill are generally NOT viewed as the the right direction.
Pundits and political strategists of both parties have mistakenly assumed Democrats would benefit because of this.
We think it's a mistake because we wanted them to assume WE would benefit!
3) The public trusts the President over Democrats in Congress on each of the above issues,
At least, we are pretty sure they must in some parallel universe somewhere.
... despite media coverage over the last few weeks concerning the President and Iraq and Homeland Security, and Democratic efforts to be perceived as dominant on domestic issues.
Yep, in spite of our carefully prescripted media coverage, people are STILL pissed off at us!
Ironically this includes the issues the Democrats often refer to as "kitchen table" issues.
you know, stupid little issues like being able to buy food and medicine...and to afford a kitchen table, for that matter.
n a broader comparison the public trusts the Republican Party over the Democratic Party overwhelmingly on terrorism/security and the Republican Party is tied with the Democrat Party on the issues of the Economy and Education.
Those protests in every city across the nation are actually outpourings of support for the GOP!!!!
4) The public's desire, in spite of the Democrats best efforts to the contrary, is to not fix political blame for the economy.
We don't think even Alan Greenspan could "fix" that one, it's so obvious our boy George is to blame
They continue to look for positive solutions for job creation and economic growth.
When we can fix everything just by giving everyone $300 in the spring, then shipping their jobs to Rio or the Philippines in the fall!
Thus far, the public hasn't heard a single positive message from Democrats on this issue.
And as long as we control the media, they won't either!!!!
This provides a great opportunity for Republicans to debate and engage voters and Democrats directly. Since Democrats do not have the voters' overwhelming trust on the economy and have no real solutions from their leaders, the Republicans are in a great position to win the debate on the economy in this election.
We are always at our best when we don't have to be confronted by real solutions or real trust -- in fact, it's about the only time we DO look good!
5) Corporate accountability/responsibility has fallen to some degree as an issue of concern. The public still trusts the President and Republicans in Congress more on this issue.
Stop that hysterical laughter this minute!!!!
Pundits initially speculated this issue would be a boon for Democrats, but based on the generic ballot stability, the President's continued high approval ratings, and the Republican Party's favorability advantage, voters clearly understand the source of this problem.
At least the voters involved in our polls - who were handpicked by the Heritage Foundation from their "special lists"
This election will be fought at the local and state level in a few contested races around the country.
OK, OK, so 57 isn't a "few" - don't be such a defeatist! We have phony polls to back us up!!!
Though Democrats have tried to nationalize this election with coordinated attacks over last few months the facts above show the public has not responded.
Well, at least not the way we HOPED they would.
It is amazing that with an economy growing less than we would like, the Democrats have no inherent advantage on this issue or on any of voters' top concerns. It points to an opportunity for Republican candidates to discuss the President's positive economic agenda in a major and profound way.
And if you believe Bush's position is "major" and "profound" in ANY way, then you're just the sort of idiot the GOP is looking for!
Voters are looking for positive solutions, not fixing blame. And Democrat's lack of both leadership and a positive agenda for the economy has left them unable to connect with voters.
At least as long as we maintain our stranglehold on the media, anyway!
This Week's Action Alert
Change Your Answering Machine Message To Support Our Republican Candidates
Help President Bush by spreading the Republican message! Change your answering machine at home or voice mail at work to promote our Republican candidates on the ballot this November.
As most of us party faithful have no life, we feel that dedicating our home phones to the cause is not much to ask.
On to victory!
Down with Evildoers!
Hang all liberals!
Voice Mail Script:
"Hi you've reached (your name), another supporter of (your state)'s Republican Team.
All that stuff you've been hearing about Iraq - well, that was all just made up by the LIBERAL MEDIA! And as far as those bits about Harken and Halliburton go...those were just RUMORS concocted by LEFTWING WACKO PUNDITS.
As my friends and family --- please do me a personal favor -- vote Republican on Election Day.
Please, please, please, we're BEGGING you! Vote Republican! It may be the last chance we'll ever get to turn the United States into a fascist dictatorship! Time is running out!
Keep (your state) Strong. Vote for (your Republican candidates) and the entire Republican team on Tuesday, November 5th.
And any bags of ballots you happen to see laying around....well, just grab one or two of them on your way out.
And of course, leave me a message and I'll get back to you as soon as possible."
As soon as I get back from my multilevel Christian marketing meeting.
Next week's Action Alert: Starting Joint Bank Accounts with the GOP!!!: Ex: "Pay to the order of (your name) and the Republican National Committee".....