Campaign 2004 Predictions

Zogby: Kerry 311, Bush 213...
Campaign 2004 Predictions

Nevada (5) and Colorado (9) too close to call. As of 5pm ET.

If Young Voters Vote, Bush Is a Goner
Campaign 2004 Predictions

Ruben Navarrette Jr writes: "When polls examine all likely voters, most of them show President Bush maintaining a razor-thin lead over Kerry or the two men locked in a tie. But among younger voters, it's a different story. There, Kerry is beating the daylights out of Bush. In an ABC News poll of likely voters aged 18 to 29, 57 percent chose Kerry while only 38 percent lined up behind Bush. That's consistent with another recent poll of young voters conducted by a public affairs firm for Newsweek.com and The Associated Press. In that survey, Kerry led Bush 52 percent to 42 percent among likely voters under 30. What in the name of MTV is going on?"

Record Turnout: 121 Million Predicted to Vote
Campaign 2004 Predictions

"Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, predicts that up to 121 million people will vote, compared with 105 million in 2000. That would make the 2004 turnout the highest percentage of eligible voters to cast ballots since 1968, at the height of the Vietnam War. The 2000 turnout was the largest-ever number of voters." In 2000, turnout was 51% of eligible voters. This year it looks to be 59% -- or more.

Fl-Oh-Pa - a Kerry Trifecta?
Campaign 2004 Predictions

"In Florida, there have been 11 polls since 10-15. Bush led in 5, Kerry led in 5, and 1 was tied. Average support was 47.5% for Bush, 46.5% for Kerry, and 1.2% for Nader. Turnout in the early voting has been enormous, with a clear advantage for Democrats. Expect a huge turnout tomorrow as well that will put this state in the Kerry column. In Ohio, there have been 11 polls since 10-15. Kerry led in 7, Bush led in 3, and 1 was tied. Average support was 47.2% for Bush and 48.3% for Kerry. Turnout is going to be enormous and two federal judges ruled this morning that Republicans cannot challenge voters in minority precincts. That was Karl Rove's last gasp in Ohio. The Buckeye state will go Democratic this year and no Republican has ever won a presidential election without carrying Ohio. In Pennsylvania, there have been 11 polls since 10-15. Kerry led in 8, Bush led in 2 and 1 was tied. Average support was 46.8% for Bush and 48.7% for Kerry. Pennsylvania looks solid for Kerry. "

Kerry Pulls Ahead in Florida - Zogby Predicts Kerry Victory!
Campaign 2004 Predictions

Palm Beach Post: "For the first time this week, U.S. Sen. John Kerry pulled ahead of Bush in Florida, according to a poll that has been tracking voter opinion in 10 key states. Just three days before the election, The Palm Beach Post/ Reuters/ Zogby International poll showed that 47 percent of likely voters in the Sunshine State supported Kerry, while 45 percent said they supported Bush. Pollster John Zogby said much can be learned from the gridlock that seems to plague the race. "At this stage, incumbent Bush shouldn't be struggling in key states where 131 electoral votes are at stake, Bush's struggles,' he said, 'are Kerry's gains.' That's why he said he has no compunction about calling the race for Kerry. 'It's a hunch,' said Zogby, who is known for his unconventional methods. 'I'm looking at the president's numbers as an incumbent, and they're not good.'"

NewsMax Says Bush is Losing
Campaign 2004 Predictions

Here's the lead item from ultraright NewsMax's Campaign Buzz: Early Voting Results. "Polling of early convenience voting in states like Florida are not going well for Bush. Republicans expected this, with the enormous resources pumped into the voter efforts of Democrats." Gee, why doesn't NewsMax put this bad (for Bush) news on its web site?

Poll-based Election Model Gives Kerry a 99% Probability of Winning
Campaign 2004 Predictions

The Election Model by TruthIsAll is a comprehensive and unique election analysis model which cuts through the fog of polling. Right now, the model shows that Kerry has a 99% probability of winning the election. That is the number derived from the National poll projection model and the State Poll simulation model. They confirm one another. The methodology is explained in summary and detail on the home page. The graphics are plentiful and illuminating. The polling data input (national and state) are presented in detail, and the analysis as well. This model has been back-tested with the 2000 final state voting numbers and was correct to within .04% of the Gore and Bush final percentages.

Kerry Surges in Battleground States
Campaign 2004 Predictions

"Bush won Missouri comfortably in 2000; Kerry now leads in polls there. Pennsylvania, the state Bush has visited more times than any other save Texas, now looks like it might not even be close, with Kerry garnering double-digit leads in some polls. Kerry also leads by a good margin in Michigan. Ohio was supposed to be the Florida of 2000, the state on which all could hinge; most polls show Kerry with a lead there... Kerry leads [Florida] in every poll. And the situation on the ground is favorable to Kerry as well: According to the St. Petersburg Times, the Bush campaign, the state GOP, and the RNC combined have only 68 paid staffers in Florida, compared to the 300 working there for the crack anti-Bush field organizing group America Coming Together; that doesn't even count the Kerry campaign itself. Through June, the Democrats had added 129,423 new voters to the Florida rolls, compared to 75,132 for Republicans. And the Democrats will be watching the vote counting very carefully."

The Fat Lady is Clearing Her Throat
Campaign 2004 Predictions

They say an opera isn't over until the Fat Lady sings. Well, Charlie Cook is one of DC's best election analysts, and he can hear the Fat Lady getting ready to sing a song Bush doesn't want to hear. "'Bush must have a change in the dynamics and the fundamentals of this race if he is to win a second term,' Charlie Cook writes. 'The sluggishly recovering economy and renewed violence in Iraq don't seem likely to positively affect this race, but something needs to happen. It is extremely unlikely that Bush will get much more than one-fourth of the undecided vote, and if that is the case, he will need to be walking into Election Day with a clear lead of perhaps three percentage points.' 'This election is certainly not over, but for me, it will be a matter of watching for events or circumstances that will fundamentally change the existing equation - one that for now favors a challenger over an incumbent.'"