"Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Kerry leading Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004. Ralph Nader received 1.6%, while 4% remain undecided in the survey of 6,039 likely voters. The poll is centered on subscribers to the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a joint initiative of Rock the Vote and Motorola Inc. (for more information: http://www.rtvmo.com). The poll has margin of error of +/-1.2 percentage points... The text-message poll marks a departure from current industry standards for polling, but promises to be a first step toward addressing the growing number of Americans who rely primarily-if not solely-on mobile phones. "

Josh Marshall writes, "According to Gallup's mega-final-ultra poll out Sunday evening, 30% of registered voters in Florida have already voted, either through early voting or by absentee. Of those who have already voted, Kerry leads President Bush 51% to 43%. According to the Des Moines Register poll out late Saturday evening, 27% of Iowa adults have already voted. And among those Kerry leads 52% to 41%."

Ruy Teixera writes, "Sunday night, Gallup released their final national poll, based on an unusually large sample (over 2,000 adults), plus six polls in key battleground states (OH, FL, PA, IA, WI and MN). The results indicate that Kerry is finishing strongly and should be in a good position to pull off a victory on Tuesday. In the national poll, Kerry is ahead by a point among RVs in a 2-way race (48-47) and by 2 points in a 3-way race (48-46)... Gallup's state polls showed Kerry with solid leads in both Ohio and Florida among both LVs and RVs, since those were the two states in the 'big three' (OH, FL, PA) that seemed most competitive and were red states in 2000. And, while Gallup's PA poll did show Bush with a lead among LVs, it also showed him trailing among RVs in a state where polls have very consistently shown Bush behind. The most reasonable assumption, it seems to me, is that Kerry is still the odds-on winner in that state. "

Washington Post: "The electoral map unexpectedly - and perhaps temporarily - expanded yesterday, with Democrats suddenly playing defense in their traditional stronghold of Hawaii and some party strategists eyeing two other states that Sen. John F. Kerry had all but written off, West Virginia and Arkansas. Strategists in both parties said they were confident that Hawaii would remain in Democratic hands on Election Day [but] Bill Clinton, according to party strategists, has implored the Kerry campaign for weeks not to give up on Arkansas, a state Gore narrowly lost, and plans to campaign there Sunday. In the past two weeks, two polls have shown the race in Arkansas statistically even. [O]ne top Democrat said polling within the past week showed the race [in West Virginia] had narrowed to low single digits...."

"In their latest strategy memo, James Carville and Stan Greenberg say 'the big story in this election is the Education Gap, which is greatly impacting who are the targets in the coming week, and will impact and be the story of the election afterwards. While the Gender Gap has diminished since 2000, the Education Gap has expanded significantly, and is now slightly larger than the division along gender lines.' 'In 2000, there was only a 2-point education gap, with Gore and Bush running dead even among college graduates and Bush winning by just 2 points among the non-college educated voters. The result was a 2-point education gap. But not so in 2004. Today, there is now a 12-point education gap. Kerry is winning college educated voters by 10 points but losing the non-college graduates by 2 points.'" (Note: PDF file)

Ruy Teixeira blogs, "A new Ipsos-AP analysis of their poll data shows new voters leaning very heavily toward Kerry. Among LVs who are new voters, Kerry is favored over Bush by a smashing 25 points, 60-35. Moreover, these new voters were twice as likely to say they'd been contacted by the Kerry campaign (38%) than by the Bush campaign (16%). The Ipsos-AP analysis provides this sketch of new voters' demographics and political attitudes: New voters tend to be young (64% are under 35), unmarried (54%), with some college experience (36%) and holding down a full-time job (63%), often in the service sector or skilled trades. They say the country is heading in the wrong direction (68%) and disapprove of Bush's performance as President (63%) and his handling of Iraq (65%), in particular. Obviously, the more of these voters that show up at the polls on November 2, the better for John Kerry."

Sid Blumenthal writes, "The polls, nearly all showing a dead-even race, are fundamentally flawed in that they mostly fail to account for all these new voters, who have no past records. Also, they do not measure those for whom a cellphone is their principal phone -- 6% of the population now, concentrated among younger people, who appear to show an unusual interest in voting and will vote Democratic by a margin of 2.5-to-1. The Democracy Corps poll, however, accounts for newly registered voters. Four months ago, [Stanley] Greenberg told me, the newly registered made up only 1% of the sample. One month ago, they comprised 4%. Now, in the poll completed on Oct. 18, they are at 7% and rising. And they will vote for Kerry over Bush by 61 to 37%. "

Zogby reports that Bush "only leads among married voters by 11 points -- not enough to offset Kerry's strong lead among singles. Kerry continues to poll well among low income and union voters. He has improved his standing among women and is running strong among voters who have active passports -- perhaps a sign that he is making his case on foreign policy. Kerry also continues his dominance among Jewish voters. While the sub-group polled is small, the fact that the President never seems to break 20% of this group at least suggests that he might not do as well as his advisors have suggested... Lots more campaign to go. Wednesday's debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many Independents have yet to make up their minds."

"Democratic challenger John Kerry held on to a slim one-point lead over President Bush after Friday's second debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Sunday. Support for Kerry and Bush held steady after the televised encounter, with the Massachusetts senator maintaining a slim 46-45 percent lead on Bush in the latest three-day tracking poll."

The Bushie media just doesn't have the resources to manipulate EVERY poll. So they have focused on Bush. But to give you just a little hint of what the REAL mood of America is beneath the media Potemkin Village, check out what's happening in Illinois! "Democratic candidate Barack Obama's lead in the race for U.S. Senate has grown to 51 percentage points over Republican Alan Keyes...The Tribune/WGN-TV poll found that 68% of likely voters favored Obama for senator and 17% supported Keyes. Last month, a Tribune/WGN-TV poll showed the gap was 65-24%." This reflects America's REAL mood toward the Repugs and toward the hate-spewing rightwing blowhard pundits (which Keyes represents) in general.

"The latest Zogby Interactive poll of 16 battleground states shows Mr. Kerry ahead in 11 states, one state fewer than in a poll taken during the Republican convention two weeks earlier... Mr. Kerry's 11 states control 125 votes, while Mr. Bush's five states have 52. Thus, if the results on Election Day match the findings of the Zogby poll, Mr. Kerry would win, 297-241... Excluding Florida and Arkansas, which Mr. Kerry leads by less than one point, the senator's lead is 264-241, with 33 electoral votes up for grabs. Taking away four states where fewer than three points separate the candidates, Mr. Kerry is ahead 254-236, with 48 votes up for grabs. Still, there are signs that Mr. Kerry is gaining back some of the strength that was sapped during the Republican convention. In the latest poll, Mr. Kerry gained ground on the president in nine states, while Mr. Bush improved his standing in six."

"It's almost as if there were no conventions at all. The latest numbers in the Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll shows the race almost exactly where it was in late July before the Democrats gathered in Boston. The poll shows Mr. Bush establishing a strong lead in OH, where history indicates he absolutely must win to keep his job, and in TN, a state where he led by large volumes in earlier polls but where he lost that advantage before regaining it this past week. Mr. Kerry leads in states he needs to win to grab the top prize, but his leads are smaller than they had been in earlier polls. This latest collection of polls shows that Mr. Kerry would win the White House by a margin of 264 electoral votes, to 231 for Mr. Bush. The votes of three states - FL, MO, and NV- are held out of the count because the candidates are within one percentage point of each other and so are too close to call. Even if Mr. Bush were to be awarded all three states, he still would lose narrowly."

While the media keeps featuring the Time/Newsweek polls with Bush 11% ahead, Rasmussen's daily tracking poll for Tuesday 9-7-04 has the race DEAD EVEN: 47.3%-47.3%. We fearlessly predict that Kerry will lead in Wednesday's poll. Call the media and tell them they are lying about Bush's Bounce - and get back to work registering pro-Kerry voters!

The media has been totally suckered by the Time and Newsweek polls showing an absurd 11% bounce for Bush. The daily tracking poll by Rasmussen showed an initial bounce of 4%, which lasted for all of 3 days. By Sunday, Bush's lead was down to 1.2%, and by Monday it may be gone altogether. Don't be fooled - the race remains DEAD EVEN.

Washington Post "The problem for Republicans is that something need not be a large factor this year to be a pivotal one. As [GOP Ohio Governor Bob] Taft put in a recent interview, 'Ohio may be this year's Florida. This will be too close to call until November 2nd,' he said. 'I don't think there's any state that's going to be as closely divided.' In a survey last week by the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) led Bush among likely voters 48 to 46 percent, with independent Ralph Nader garnering 1 percent. A Gallup poll in Ohio also showed a two-point spread favoring Kerry, but when the pool of respondents was expanded to include all registered voters, not just people who voted last time, Kerry was ahead by 10 points." If Bush/Cheney lose Ohio, they'll lose the Electoral College. The media pollsters and the Republicans think you won't bother to vote. Turn out in Ohio and all across America to prove them wrong and send Bush/Cheney packing.

"Kerry and Edwards had the backing of 47%, Bush and Cheney had the support of 41% and independent Ralph Nader and his running mate Peter Camejo had 4% in the Quinnipiac University poll. Bush and Kerry were deadlocked in Florida at 43% each in a Quinnipiac poll in late June. The August poll found Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the president's younger brother, getting tepid reviews from Floridians. They were evenly split on whether they approve or disapprove of the job the second-term governor is doing. The survey also found fewer than half, 47%, were 'very confident' that their vote would count. Only one in five said the same about new touch-screen voting machines that will be used this year in 15 of the state's largest counties."

FOX reports, "In the two-way matchup, Kerry went from being dead even against Bush to having a three point edge. In the three-way race, Kerry went from being one-point behind to having a four-point advantage. And while the bump may be less than what the Democrats had hoped for, the 46% Kerry receives in the new poll is his best showing so far... Kerry received a post-convention boost on the attribute of 'strong leader.' While Bush still has a small advantage over Kerry as the candidate more voters see as being a strong leader, the gap is much narrower - Bush had a 19-point edge before the convention and today that has closed to four-percentage points... Kerry's favorable rating is up eight points and now stands at 52% - his highest favorable rating to date. Edwards's favorable receives a similar boost and is now at 51%. Personal favorable ratings for Bush (47%) and Dick Cheney (40%), are both down a few points from last month."

"Latino voters who were surveyed were sharply critical of the war in Iraq. More than six in 10 -- 63% -- said the war was not worth fighting, a view shared by slightly more than half of all voters nationally. Fewer than a third of all Latinos and fewer than half of all voters believe the war justified its costs. Latinos also are more pessimistic about the war on terrorism than the overall population is, with 37% saying the United States is winning and 40% saying it is losing. The survey found that Kerry claimed support from 60% of all Latino registered voters in the 11 states surveyed while Bush had 30%. Two% supported Ralph Nader, an independent, and 8% were undecided. Among all voters nationally, Bush and Kerry were tied in the most recent Post survey, with each receiving 46% support." Bush got 35% of Latino votes in 2000 and he cannot win if that support drops.

"A new survey suggests Bush faces a potential threat of his own from a more obscure spoiler: Michael Badnarik. In the survey, conducted in three Midwest battleground states, some voters who said they would choose Bush over Kerry in a two-candidate race also said they would pick Badnarik, the Libertarian Party nominee for president, if he were added to the ballot... 'This shows us that there is a small, but potentially very significant, number of upper-Midwesterners who are interested in voting for the Libertarian Party, and that they appear to be hailing from the wings of the Republican Party,' said Lawrence Jacobs, a Humphrey Institute political scientist, who directed the poll. The survey suggested that the Libertarian had potential to steal support from Bush where it could hurt most: among much-coveted independents. In Wisconsin, the survey showed that 8% of independents would back Badnarik. That cut Bush's performance among independent voters in the state from about 50% to 43%. "

Ruy Teixeira writes, "Kerry-Edwards leads Bush-Cheney by 7%s (51-44) among RVs. That's up from a 4% lead in Gallup's last poll about three weeks ago. Internals of this horse race question also look very good for the Democratic ticket. Kerry-Edwards have a very healthy 13% lead among independents (50-37). And Democrats are supporting their ticket even more strongly (92-6) than the Republicans are supporting theirs (87-9); the reverse has generally been true. Kerry-Edwards also have a wide 19% lead in the solid blue states (58-39) and, even more important, a substantial 10% lead in the purple, up-for-grabs states (51-41). In addition, the Kerry-Edwards ticket enjoys a substantial advantage in favorability ratings over the Bush-Cheney ticket. Kerry's favorability rating is 56% favorable/34% unfavorable (a +22 net rating), while Bush's is 52/46 (+6). Similarly, Edwards' favorability rating is 55/24 (+31), while Cheney's is 46/42 (+4). Guess those attack ads didn't work so well after all."

The Kerry-Edwards ticket is Karl Rove's worst nightmare. NBC's overnight poll showed Kerry-Edwards leading Bush-Cheney 49%-41%, with Nader-Camejo getting 4%. This result is so terrifying to the Busheviks that MSNBC.com made the results nearly impossible to find. But we found it - and we know Karl Rove is screaming his head off!

Karl Rove is preparing Republican supporters for the inevitable: that John Kerry will get a significant "bounce" in the polls after the convention. Of course, Rove can't stop playing psychological games - he's setting the bar at a 15% bounce, which is next to impossible, because there are so few undecided voters compared with past elections. We also suspect Rove has some dirty tricks up his sleeve to take the cameras away from the Democratic Convention - for example, an oh-so-convenient terrorist threat in NYC that puts Tom Ridge's face on TV, not John Kerry's. Beware - and take action if that happens!

Statesman-Journal: "A survey of 770 businesses conducted for the July issue of Oregon Business magazine showed presumptive Democratic candidate John Kerry unseating President Bush by 47 percent to 43 percent in a two-way race. The margin is 45 to 43 if independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader is included. Sixty-six percent of women respondents rated the presidentâ??s performance on the job as fair or very poor. Twenty-eight percent of women said they would vote for Bush. Although 49 percent of all men in business said they would vote for Bush, 40 percent of business owners and 57 percent of chief executives and senior managers supported the president."

"Though the traditional Labor Day start of the campaign is still two months away, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Monday through Wednesday shows that swing voters already are scarce. Eight of 10 registered voters say there is 'no chance whatsoever' that they will switch from their candidate to the other guy. There are fewer voters who might be lured by TV ads or position papers than in previous elections, one more sign of a polarized electorate. About this time in 1992, 62% of registered voters said they were open to changing their minds. In 1996, that number dropped to 39%. In 2000, it was 28%. Now, 18% of registered voters say they might be persuaded to change their minds, and 2% are undecided. That shrinking pool accounts for the limited movement between Bush and John Kerry. Despite relentless campaigning, they have stayed within 6 percentage points of each other among likely voters since early March. In this survey, Bush has moved ahead, 48%-47%."

Ruy Teixeira writes, "a decisive majority of independent voters may be in the process of giving up on Bush--becoming more and more convinced that his performance in office has been too poor to merit re-election and that Kerry is almost certainly a better bet than he to run the country... Bush's overall approval rating among independents is just 44%, with 56% disapproval. And in the two critical areas of Iraq (36/62) and the economy (35/65) his ratings among this group are truly dreadful and much worse than among the public as a whole. And there is not a single issue area in this poll on which independents prefer Bush to Kerry... How can Bush win with this kind of sentiment among independents? I don't believe he can. But how well positioned is Bush at this point to play to the independent voter and turn these numbers around? Not well I think given the hard-line conservatism he's practiced since he was elected. The (independent) chickens may be coming home to roost. "

"Amid rising disenchantment with the war in Iraq, Bush has lost significant ground on the issue on which he's staked his residency: fighting terrorism. For the first time in ABC News/Washington Post polls, more than half of Americans, 52%, say the Iraq war was not worth fighting. Seven in 10 call U.S. casualties there 'unacceptable,' a new high. And there's been a steady slide in belief that the war has enhanced long-term U.S. security; 51% now say so, down 11% this year. Bush, moreover, has weakened in his once-strongest area. Approval of his handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism has fallen to 50%, its lowest yet - down 8% in the last month and 29% below its immediate postwar peak. In a hazardous turn of fortune for Bush, John Kerry now runs evenly with him in trust to handle terrorism; Bush had led by 13% on this issue a month ago, and by 21% the month before... Women, in particular, have moved toward Kerry, as have, perhaps most crucially, independents."

Emerging Democratic Majority writes, "Swing voters in swing states give Bush an overall approval rating of just 44%. But that's good compared to how they feel about Bush's handling of the economy and Iraq. In both cases, Bush's approval rating is a stunningly low 30%, with 60% disapproval. Wow. Sounds like these voters are ready for a change. That's confirmed by their responses to the right direction/wrong track question: they chose wrong track over right direction by over two to one (59% to 25%). In addition, 85% of these voters believe that the current state of the economy is only fair or poor and only 14% believe that Bush's economic policies have made the economy better... [But] these voters also are paying less attention to the campaign than other voters, so Kerry will need to catch their attention to turn them decisively in his direction."

A poll conducted by the LA Times between June 5-8 shows Bush in trouble. "Just 34% of respondents say the US is moving in the right direction, compared to 37% in March and well down from the heady 51% who liked the way things were going in March, 2001.The right-track, wrong-track indicator is considered a key barometer of the electorate's mood and is closely monitored by political analysts. In a one-to-one match with John Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate, Mr Bush lags by seven points. Asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 51 % choose Mr Kerry against 44% for Mr Bush. A similar poll in March showed Mr Kerry ahead by a 49-46%margin. In Ohio, where a battle is raging for its 20 electoral votes, Mr Kerry and Mr Bush were virtually tied. But a majority of respondents - 55% - said they disapproved of Mr Bush's handling of the economy, with 38 per cent strongly disapproving."

Karl Rove just can't get a break. Even though the media has spent 4 full days and nights sanctifying Ronald Reagan, there has been no "bounce" for Bush in the polls. In fact, the daily tracking poll at Rasmussen shows Bush actually went from a 45%-45% tie to a 44%-46% deficit. We suspect voters who compare Bush to Reagan find Bush to be utterly lacking in Reaganesque charm, conviction, and eloquence. Bush is a puffed-up wannabe with no convictions and no ability to even deliver prepared lines, let alone extemporaneous remarks. If 4 days of Reagan-worshipping and UN supplication can't help Bush, nothing can.

"The poll finds Kerry leading Bush in the presidential contest by 49% to 44% among registered voters, and 50% to 44% among likely voters... This is, in fact, the largest lead Kerry has had over Bush since early March. Among registered voters, Kerry leads Bush by 20% in the blue states (won by Al Gore in 2000 by a margin of more than 5%), and trails Bush by just 4% in the red states (won by Bush in 2000 by a margin of more than 5%). In the purple states (those won by either Gore or Bush by margins of 5% or less), Kerry leads by 5%, 49% to 44%... Of particular importance may be the low ratings Bush receives on two substantive issues -- prescription drugs for older Americans and energy policy. Gas prices have been a major concern for Americans in recent weeks, and only last week did senior citizens begin to feel the first impact of the new prescription drug law, enacted last fall. [These] may represent vulnerabilities that Kerry could take advantage of in the presidential campaign."

Bushevik Scott Elliott writes," Is this the end? Has the hole grown too deep? Is our beloved President really going down in November? [YOU BET!]... I'm convinced next Tuesday, were it election day, would be a very sad one for Bushies like me. It's obvious that Bush is currently losing the race for White House version 2005. This week's Election Projection certainly attests to that. Senator Kerry, the off-again, on-again Democratic nominee, has acquired a good bit of breathing room in his quest to unseat President Bush. He leads by 7.57% (52.87% - 45.30%) in the popular vote projection which translates to a whopping 337-201 advantage in the all-important electoral vote count. Looking deeper into the data, we see that the President's increasingly negative job approval numbers are beginning to be reflected in the latest round of presidential preference polls. For the first time this year, the projection shows Kerry beating Bush head-to-head. Nader's presence makes little difference."

"In Florida, the split among likely voters in this survey is 49% supporting Kerry, 48% Bush and 1% Nader... In four states - Arkansas, Iowa, Tennessee and West Virginia - Bush holds narrow leads over Kerry that also fall within the margins of error. In the remaining 11 states (Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire), Kerry holds leads over Bush ranging from close races within the margins of error to 8% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - two states that Democrat Al Gore carried in 2000 and Bush is contesting heavily. Pollster John Zogby said that if Democrats and Republicans hold on to all of the states that each party won comfortably in 2000, and the advantages portrayed in these 16 battleground states hold true, Kerry will win a 102 electoral-vote victory over Bush."

When even FOX and Pentapost (both released polls this week) can't shore Bush's ratings up, and can only tweak the results enough to push Bush up into a "dead heat" with Kerry, then you know it's lights out for the Bush campaign! Not only does the latest Pentapost poll show Bush with his lowest approval rating yet at 47% (which of course is probably inflated by 5-10 points), it shows the biggest loss taken by Bush in the past month has been a decline in approval among Republicans. This is very encouraging, because it shows that contrary to what the White House would have us all believe, not all Republicans are goosesteppers like Tom Delay, James Inhofe or Dennis Hastert... thank God!

CBS: "Overall, 49% now say they would vote for Kerry, 41% Bush. 41% approve of the job [Bush] is doing as resident, while 52% disapprove - the lowest overall job rating of his residency. Two weeks ago, 44% approved. A year ago, two-thirds did. 61% of Americans now disapprove of the way Mr. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, while just 34% approve. 65% now say the country is on the wrong track - matching the highest number ever recorded in CBS News Polls, which began asking this question in the mid-1980's. Only 30% currently say things in this country are headed in the right direction. The last time the percentage that said the country was on the wrong track was as high as it is now was back in November 1994. Then, Republicans swept into control of both houses of Congress for the first time in decades." We predict a repeat - with Democrats sweeping control!

Politics1.com is running a "Politics Survivor" game. There is a list of many American politicians and you must vote off the one that you do not want on the island. Progressives united against George Bush in the first round, but Conservatives cheated and got a thousand talk show listeners to vote against John Kerry in the second round. But Kerry is not off yet! Let's show the website that Progressives rule. Voting for this second round will be until Wednesday, so please hurry and go to Politics1.com and play "Political Survivor" and unite against the corrupt vice president Dick Cheney! He has the 2nd to most votes (besides Kerry), so we still have a chance to throw Dick out!

Rightwinger Scott Elliott writes, "If you are a liberal, this week's Election Projection will be a mighty fine sight. A mighty fine sight, indeed. Bad news in Iraq and higher gas prices at home are completely overshadowing the ecomony's stunning performance over the last couple months. As a result, Senator Kerry is now trouncing the resident by over seven percentage points, 52.69% - 45.48%. That substantial margin translates to a 327-211 lead in electoral votes. Since my last update, Missouri and Nevada have flown the coop, bringing to five the number of states won by Bush in 2000 that are projected to go into Kerry's column this year (including NH, OH, and FL!). Moreover, the situation would be even worse without the influence of state polling data. Bush retains Arizona and West Virginia thanks to those polls. Looking at the current projection, my predictions [Bush 449 - Kerry 89] may seem completely absurd." You got THAT right!

"As his administration grapples with the fallout from the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal, George W. Bush's approval ratings have dropped to 42%, according to the latest Newsweek poll, a low for his presidency. 57% say they disapprove of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq. And 62% say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the US, a number that has been steadily increasing since April 2003, when it was 41%... With images of naked and shackled prisoners still fresh in their minds, the 35% of the public that approve of the handling the war in Iraq represents a nine-point drop over last month. And the number of those who think the United States did the right thing in declaring war on Iraq in the first place has fallen 11-points from December, to 51%... Both Bush and his presumptive challenger enjoy similar favorability ratings-nearly half of all voters view both men favorably (47% for Kerry and 46%), but more have an 'unfavorable' view of Bush (46%) than do of Kerry (36%)."

Dan Balz: "Bush has slipped into a politically fragile position that has put his reelection at risk, with the public clearly disaffected by his handling of the two biggest issues facing the country: Iraq and the economy. Bush's approval rating in the Gallup poll fell to 46% this week - the lowest in his presidency by that organization's measures. 51% said they disapprove - the first time in his residency that a bare majority registered disapproval of the way Bush is doing his job. A Pew Research Center survey released Wednesday pegged Bush's approval at 44%, with 48% disapproving. In contrast, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, who were reelected easily, had approval ratings in the mid-50s at this point in their reelection campaigns and remained at or above those levels into November. But Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, and Jimmy Carter had fallen to about 40% in their approval ratings at this point in their races and, after continuing to fall even further, lost their reelection bids."

RasmussenReports.com is publishing a daily tracking poll with a heavy Republican bias. Nevertheless, in the latest weekly summary, John Kerry has 45.9% of the vote to Bush's 44.1%. The 44.1% figure represents Bush's lowest level of support in our weekly releases this year (his prior low was 44.2% for the week ending April 1). Hey Karl Rove - it ain't gonna get any better from here. If you want to stay in the White House, you need to find another candidate. Trouble is, your whole Republican team is hated - except for the Gropenator, and he ain't born-in-America. Tough beans, Karl.

A new Gallup poll shows 62% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going, with just 49% approving of the way Bush is handling his job. Gallup, as we all know, always pads Bush's approval ratings - so we suspect the real world approval rating is closer to Blair's - about 37%. Unable to prop Bush up, Gallup is using the new tactic promoted by the American Enterprise Institute and other rightwing tacticians: claim the nation is "polarized", thereby implying Kerry is a liberal extremist. The poll shows Kerry ahead by just one point (49% to Bush's 48%) but we can assume the real world margin is much much greater. In addition, this poll was slapped together BEFORE the impact of Abu Ghraib could register.

"Democracy Corps has completed a national poll of 1,024 likely voters that indicates George W. Bush is an endangered incumbent with 2004 shaping up to be a 'change' election. The majority for change is growing as 53% of voters say they want the country to go in a 'significantly different direction' while only 45% want to continue with Bush's direction. In a divided country that has become even more polarized under Bush, Americans are hungry for a new direction that has us pull together to tackle our problems, and make America strong at home and abroad."

Newsday: "John Kerry continues to hold a large lead in the presidential race over George W. Bush among Connecticut residents, according to a University of Connecticut poll released Friday. Fifty-one percent of those surveyed support Kerry, the Democratic presidential challenger, while 33 percent support Bush and 4 percent back Connecticut native Ralph Nader, who is running as an independent. Twelve percent remain undecided. The poll numbers released were essentially unchanged from a similar University of Connecticut poll released March 29. In the poll, independent voters favor Kerry over Bush 48 percent to 22 percent."

The electoral college is divided up along the lines of population: the states with the highest populations, according to the latest census, get the most electoral votes. So, despite Gallup and AP's efforts to fudge Bush into a lead, a state by state breakdown -- covering far more voters over a wider area -- shows that Kerry leads Bush in electoral votes 204 to 176. In other words, although Bush is carrying the most states, Kerry is carrying the most people. In other words, Bush has chalked up more "real estate" while Kerry has won more voters.

Dick Morris says the current dead heat in the polls "is terrible news for the Bush camp. One of the (very few) immutable laws of politics is that the undecided vote almost always goes against the incumbent. Consider the past seven presidential elections in which an incumbent ran - that is, look at the final vote versus the last Gallup or Harris polls. My analysis shows that the challengers got 85% of the undecided vote. Even incumbents who won got only 15% of those who reported that they were undecided in the final polls. So when Bush and Kerry are tied, the challenger really has the upper hand. More bad news for Bush: Democrats usually grow 2-3 points right before Election Day as downscale voters who have not paid much attention to the election, suddenly tune in and 'come home' to their traditional Democratic Party moorings. Remember, virtually every poll (except Zogby) showed Bush slightly ahead of Al Gore as the 2000 election approached - yet Gore outpolled Bush by 500,000 votes."

In an open Q&A, John Zogby writes: "My poll has Kerry ahead with no drop. My poll also indicates that the economy by 10% is the number one issue - 30%. I still have one in five voters who tell me that they are afraid of losing a job in the next 12 months and one in four voters in households earning $75,000 or more. Voters don't measure their lives in trillions and billions of dollars. Essentially the economy will be a major issue in this campaign and offer Kerry an opportunity in some of the battleground states like OH, MO, WV, etc... I think the following red states are very much at play: NH, OH, WV, MO, FL and possibly AZ. I think the following blue states are in play: PA, OR, MN. There are more reds than blues I think are in play this year. As for NM, even though it was very very close in 2000, I think that both the growing Latino vote and the presence of Richardson as governor will probably carry the day for Kerry. I think this election is John Kerry's to lose."

"John F. Kerry leads George W. Bush 48% to 42% in the 4/7/04 Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll. This is Kerry's biggest lead of the year and the lowest level of support for Bush since Kerry became the front-runner. Today's result marks a 9% net gain for Kerry since last Friday morning. That change is especially dramatic because Friday's strong job creation report was expected by many to boost Bush's numbers. Bush receives some modestly good news on the economic front-39% now give him good or excellent marks for handling the economy. That's up from 36% a week ago. Still, 41% of Americans believe the economy is still in a recession. Any bounce Bush might have enjoyed from the economic news was outweighed by developments in Iraq. In a survey conducted over the past two nights, 44% of voters say Bush is doing a poor job handling the situation in Iraq. That's up 6% in a week. Bush's Job Approval rating has dropped to its lowest level in 2004."

The World Peace Society (Australia) is running a little world wide vote for U.S. President between Kerry, Nader, and Bush. Not good news for Bush, but then these votes don't count.

The very detailed questions asked in the poll and the responses. It can be further sorted by sex, race, party,education, age and region.

"Increasingly critical of Bush on his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, more Florida voters now say they plan to support John Kerry than to help reelect [sic] Bush, according to a new poll. The Herald/St. Petersburg Times survey reveals striking vulnerabilities for Bush among key independent voters in the state that [Bush stole] four years ago. More Florida voters disapprove of his job performance than approve, another sign of Bush's lagging popularity since the 2001 terrorist attacks transformed Bush from a polarizing figure into a popular wartime resident. A majority of voters believe that the United States is 'moving in the wrong direction' under Bush - a marked reversal from two years ago, when 7 in 10 voters, including half of Democrats, approved of Bush's job performance. While Kerry secured the nomination only days ago, he holds a 49% to 43% lead [MoE=3.5%] over a resident who just four months ago led every potential Democratic challenger by as many as 18%."

Right on cue, within 48 hours of Bush's official launching of his campaign, AP (American Propaganda), released its first trumped up poll. It of course shows Bush ahead of Kerry - quite miraculously, considering the fact that no fewer than 10 other polls (including Gallop, CNN, Zogby, et al) in the past two weeks have shown Kerry with a 5-15 point LEAD over Bush. The poll also gives Nader 6% of the vote - yet he isn't even backed by his own (former) party (he only got 1-3% when he WAS). But with the campaign officially launched, you can rest assured that the corporate pollsters will come obediently to heel, along with the rest of the corporate media (which started its preparations for the campaign by blocking MoveOn's ads and firing Howard Stern from several markets).

Here's the sort of BS we can look forward to between now and November in terms of phony polling. A new poll that shows Bush with a huge lead over Kerry "throughout the entire South" has been plastered all over the nation by the corporate media. But turns out the poll was conducted by the University of North Florida - a school governed by a board of trustees appointed by Jeb Bush and his pals! And, to represent ALL ELEVEN states of "the entire South," only 802 people were polled! (At least 802 responses were actually KEPT by the pollsters, anyway). Here's the poll article: http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/home/article/0,1651,TCP_996_2680296,00.html

"A nonpartisan Field Poll of all likely Democratic primary voters in California released Wednesday shows Kerry with 60 percent support among likely voters, with Edwards his closest contender at 19 percent ."These numbers in California are mapping the national sentiment," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. "This election is like a national election as it comes to each state. What happens in Iowa, what happens in New Hampshire has an incredible effect, including in California." The same poll showed Bush's approval ratings have taken a marked plunge in the last month. Just 43 percent of California voters say they approve of the job he is doing, while 51 percent disapprove. In January, the numbers were almost reversed, with 52 percent saying they approved of the president's job performance while 42 percent disapproved."

"John Kerry holds his largest lead yet over Bush in a head-to-head match-up among likely voters, a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll concludes, and rival John Edwards also holds a double-digit lead over the president. The poll, taken Feb. 16-17, indicates that if the election were held today, Kerry would be chosen by 55% of likely voters, compared to 43% for Bush. In the last polling, Feb. 6-8, Bush held a 49-48 advantage. Edwards, Kerry's sole remaining major rival for the Democratic nomination, holds a 54%-44% advantage, the poll indicates. The question has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The numbers come as both Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, and Edwards, a senator from North Carolina, have maintained a relatively high public profile because of the ongoing Democratic presidential campaign. They also come as questions continue to be raised about Bush's Vietnam-era service in the National Guard." The latest version of this article is missing this text. A Scrub???

Gallup writes, "A review of historical trial-heat data from past elections shows it is rare for an incumbent president to be trailing at this stage in a campaign. At the same time, in the eight elections analyzed here, there have been campaigns in which the incumbent led in February but was defeated for re-election in November... The only other time an incumbent trailed his eventual challenger at this stage in the campaign was in 1976, when Democratic [challenger] Jimmy Carter held a slight edge over incumbent Gerald Ford, 48% to 46%. (Carter eventually defeated Ford in a close election.)" Bush is doomed!

"Kerry's relative standing to Bush [now leading 53%-46%] has changed dramatically in recent weeks. A Jan. 9-11 poll showed Bush with a 12% lead over Kerry among likely voters, for a net shift of 19%. Kerry currently has a higher favorable rating than Bush does -- 61% view Kerry favorably, while just 52% view Bush positively. Kerry's favorable rating surged following his wins in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, from 31% to 61%, and is the most positive among the Democratic presidential candidates... Kerry's relative strengths are the perceptions that he is 'in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face,' 'puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests,' and 'shares your values.' Conversely, Bush has an advantage for 'standing up for what he believes in,' for being 'patriotic,' and for being a 'strong and decisive leader.' The two candidates are more evenly matched on having a likeable personality and being able to manage the government effectively."

CNN: "Sen. John Kerry, the front-runner among Democrats vying for their party's presidential nomination, leads President Bush in a head-to-head matchup, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday. And Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and retired Gen. Wesley Clark, two other Democrats in the field, come within a few points of beating Bush, according to the hypothetical match-ups in the poll, which also found a decline in Bush's approval numbers. The poll, based on interviews with 1,001 adult Americans, including 562 likely voters, was conducted in the days after the New Hampshire primary. The poll underscores both Kerry's momentum after his wins in New Hampshire and Iowa, and increased favorability among Democrats in general as they dominate political news with their primaries and steady criticism of Bush."

"In a nationwide survey, Sen. Kerry now leads President Bush 51 - 43% according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Looking at the Democratic primary, the Kerry juggernaut has rolled up 42%, 30 points higher than any other Presidential primary contender. American voters give President Bush a 48 - 45% approval, the first time he has dropped below 50 percent. While Kerry is the only Democrat ahead of Bush, all Democratic contenders have gained ground on the President. Kerry had 30 percent of Democratic primary voters in a pre-New Hampshire January 26 national poll by the independent Quinnipiac University... 'Talk about bounce. Sen. Kerry's on a trampoline that has him soaring past the other Democrats and even past President Bush. What bounces up, can bounce down and the question is whether Kerry can stay on up and turn some of those Republican red states into Democratic blue in November,' said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."

"John Kerry has taken the lead nationally over Howard Dean in the race for the Democratic nomination, according to the latest Newsweek Poll. Kerry leads the field with 30%, followed by John Edwards with 13% [and Dean with 12%]... A Kerry-Bush match-up would have Kerry up by 49% to Bush's 46%. A Clark-Bush match-up would be a close race, with Bush at 48% and Clark at 47%. Bush would have an edge over Edwards (49% to 46%)... [and] would beat Dean (50% to 45%) and Joe Lieberman (49% to 45%)." In other words, ALL Dems could beat Bush! Just 2 weeks ago, Bush led Kerry by 11% (52%-41%) (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm). And this new poll was taken AFTER Bush's SOTU, which was supposed to give him a huge boost after his tough talk on terrorism and promises of everything under the Sun, including the Moon and Mars. If Bush is trailing Kerry by 3% now, then if Kerry wins NH he will jump to a lead of 7%-10% within a week. Bush is toast!

Overall Best Ad, and People's Choice Winner:

CHILD'S PAY
by Charlie Fisher of Denver, CO

Funniest Ad:

IF PARENTS ACTED LIKE BUSH
by Christopher Fink of Sherman Oaks, CA

Best Animated Ad:

WHAT I BEEN UP TO. . .
by Mark Wolfe and Ty Pierce of Columbus, OH

Best Youth Ad:

BRING IT ON
by Jared Ewy, Angel Sexton, and Drew Adams of Englewood, CO

What Are We Teaching Our Children? 21
In My Country 14
Polygraph 12
Imagine 9
Child's Pay 8
Wake Up America 8
Hood Robbin' 8
Leave No Billionaire Behind 7
Bush's Repair Shop 6
Army of One 4
Gone In 30 Seconds 4
Bring 'em On (Since withdrawn from official competition) 3
Human Cost of War 3
Bankrupt 3
Desktop 2

We will leave the poll up for more voting, for as long as the ads are on the "Bush in 30 Seconds" page.

We will leave the poll up for more voting, for as long as the ads are on the "Bush in 30 Seconds" page.

Here are the winners of the actual 'Bush in 30 Seconds' competition: Overall Best Ad, and People's Choice Winner: 'Child's Pay'; Funniest Ad: 'If Parents Acted Like Bush'; Best Animated Ad; 'What I Been Up To'; Best Youth Ad: 'Bring It On' (See bushin30seconds.org for details)

"There is reason for merriment in the Dean camp... 22% of registered Democrats picked the former Vermont governor as their fave. He is eight points more popular than he was in November. Everyone else in the top tier seems to be idled or sinking... According to our new CNN-'TIME' Magazine poll, fewer than half of Americans say they're playing close attention to the race. Against this backdrop, Bush is holding a 5% lead in a head-to-head match-up against Democratic frontrunner Howard Dean. [Bush] has a 6% edge in a one-on-one with Joe Lieberman. Mr. Bush leads Dick Gephardt by 9%, Wesley Clark and John Edwards by 10%, and John Kerry by 11%." CONCLUSION: Bush is beatable. Dean can beat him, and so can others.

Mike Hersh and E. O'Connell write, "Because Bush currently leads an unnamed Democrat by about 10 points in the major polls, the corporate media hawk the myth that Bush can't be beaten. True, the Pew Research Center poll conducted Dec. 15-17 showed Bush leading an unnamed Democrat by 12% and the ABC News/Washington Post Poll from Dec. 18-21 found Bush up 10%. But the Zogby Poll of Dec. 15-17 showed Bush only 5% ahead. As the 'Saddam bounce' fades, Bush's lead evaporates. The CBS News/New York Times Poll taken Dec. 14-15 had Bush ahead only 44% to 40% after months of see-sawing results: Dec. 10-13 Bush up 1%. Nov. 10-13 Bush down 2%. Oct. 20-21 Bush up 12%. Sept. 28 - Oct. 1 tied at 44%. The most recent CBS News Poll of Dec. 21-22 shows Bush returning to reality: 49% for Bush, 40% for the Democrat. Soon, the race will be back to even. Still, Bush backers crow over poll results showing Bush ahead by a dozen or more points over named rivals, but even that's no reason to annoint Bush."

Mark Shields writes, "Once again, the inside-the-Beltway political-press consensus is clear, straightforward and wrong. Let's begin with the despondent Democrats of Washington who, at the end of 2003, can best be described as nervous Nellies with weak knees and cold feet. Have they forgotten or do they not know that the last Democrat to challenge a sitting Republican president, on April 1 of the election year, had the support of just 25% of voters and trailed the incumbent by 20 points? That, of course, was Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, who, as late as June of 1992, had just 24% support and was running third behind both President George H.W. Bush and independent Ross Perot. In November 1992, Bill Clinton won the White House with 43% of the national vote to George H.W. Bush's 37%. Presidential polls 11 months before an election have all the permanence of figures written in wet sand at the ocean's edge, waiting for the next tide. "