Millions of dollars are now being raised for a public relations war between the Democrats and the Republicans to determine the next president of the United States. Will the outcome of the election be determined by ratings in the polls? Will the present standoff be resolved by escalation and threats? Or will the intention of the voters on election day and the right of the states to choose their own electors actually matter?

Our involvement this week is essential in order to uphold the principles of democracy. Propaganda is flying left and right. To combat this barrage, we present a point by point analysis of some key myths in the media today, substantiated with footnotes. Please read, copy, and forward to friends, relatives and colleagues! Thanks!

1) Myth: Al Gore has a responsibility to concede the election.

Fact: A 330 vote margin out of 6 million votes cast in Florida is incredibly close! It is roughly equivalent to a 1-vote margin in a city with 40,000 people and 18,000 voters.

It is extremely rare for an election this close NOT to be contested for several weeks until a manual recount can take place, with observers from both sides taking part and inspecting ballots. This kind of detailed recount has not yet taken place.

According to the US Constitution and the Laws of Florida, it is the responsibility of officials in Florida to certify the election results. November 17 is the deadline for absentee ballots sent from overseas to arrive. Since the election is close enough in Florida, Oregon, and New Mexico to be affected by absentee ballots, the results in those states cannot be certified before that date.

2) Myth: the number of "spoiled ballots" in Palm Beach County was typical. In a press briefing televised live on all networks on 11/9/00, Karl Rove of the Bush campaign compared the 14,872 invalidated ballots in the 1996 Presidential race to 19,120 ballots for President that were spoiled in this election.

Fact: the Bush campaign was comparing apples and oranges. There were actually 29,702 invalidated ballots this year in Palm Beach County. This is almost twice the number in 1996. The number 19,120 refers to the ballots that were thrown out for voting for two Presidential candidates. The remaining 10,582 ballots had no choice recorded for President.

According to the Palm Beach County elections office (www.pbcelections.org), voters this year were not confused at all by the rest of the ballot. For example, less than 1% of U.S. Senate votes were invalidated because of multiple punches, compared with over 4% in the Presidential contest.

3) Myth: The Palm beach ballot is definitely illegal due to the presence of punch holes to the left of some of the candidates.

Fact: According to the Secretary of State's office, there is a loophole in Florida law that may allow ballots used for voting machines to deviate from the rules governing paper ballots. This view has been contested by hundreds of Florida voters. The final decision on the legality of the ballot is likely to be made in court, as long as this issue could have an effect on the election.

It is possible that the ballot could be ruled illegal on other grounds, such as the Voting Accessibility for the Elderly and Handicapped Act or the Americans With Disabilities Act.

4) Myth: "The more often ballots are recounted, especially by hand, the more likely it is that human errors, like lost ballots and other risks, will be introduced. This frustrates the very reason why we have moved from hand counting to machine counting." -- Former Sec. of State James Baker, speaking on behalf of the Bush campaign at a press briefing televised by all networks on 11/10/00.

Fact: In 1997, George W. Bush signed into law a bill stating that hand recounts were the preferred method in a close election in Texas. The bill, "HB 330", mandated that representatives of all parties be present to prevent fraud.

Laws establishing rights and procedures for hand recounts also exist in Florida (see Title IX, Chapter 102). In fact, the Orlando Sentinel, (orlandosentinel.com) reported that a partial hand count of Presidential ballots this year was ordered by Republicans in Seminole County, where Bush led Gore. This count took place on 11/9 and 11/10, widening Bush's lead by 98 votes. The Bush campaign did not complain about this hand count; nor did it complain about the hand count on 11/11/00 which put Bush slightly ahead of Gore in New Mexico.

There do exist machine voting systems which are fairly accurate, but antiquated punch card systems are notoriously inaccurate. They were outlawed in Massachusetts in 1997 by Secretary of State William Galvin after a Congressional primary that was also "too close to call." The problem is that if the punched-out pieces of cardboard are not completely removed from the punch card, they can obstruct the card reader and the votes will not be counted. A manual recount of such cards can clearly reveal the voter's intentions.

5) Myth: The process is unfair because hand recounts were held only in liberal areas of Florida, where Gore stands to pick up the most votes.

Fact: It is true that a statewide recount would be more fair, and the Bush campaign has every right to request one. According to Florida law, hand recount requests must come from the campaigns, not from the state. To fail to request what is commonly referred to as a "defensive recount" in conservative areas of Florida, they may be making a tactical blunder that will cost them the election.

It is also true that there were voting irregularities in the counties where the Gore campaign requested recounts.

6) Myth: "Palm Beach County is a Pat Buchanan stronghold and that's why Pat Buchanan received 3407 votes there. According to the Florida Department of State, 16,695 voters in Palm Beach County are registered to the Independent Party, the Reform Party, or the American Reform Party, an increase of 110% since the 1996 presidential election" -- Ari Fleischer of the Bush Campaign, 11/9/00. The 2,000 votes received by the Reform party candidate for Congress indicate that party's strength in Palm Beach County (James Baker on Meet the Press, 11/12/00).

Fact: Of those 16,695 voters, only 337 (2 percent) are in the Reform Party according to Florida state records. The Reform party candidate for Congress, John McGuire, is connected to a more centrist wing of the Reform Party, predating Buchanan's involvement. An analysis of his support indicates that it came largely from reform-minded Ralph Nader voters.

Regarding Buchanan's vote total, the Washington Post reported that his vote percentage in Palm Beach county was four times as high at the polls as in absentee voting. Even Buchanan himself admitted on 11/8/00 on the Today Show that many of his votes actually "belonged to Al Gore." So did his campaign manager, Bay Buchanan.

7) Myth: If Gore (or Bush) ends up winning the popular vote, he really should win the election even if he loses Florida and other states.

Fact: This is not the way the U.S. Constitution is written. The Electoral College decision, imperfect as it may be, is the only one that matters. It may be possible to reform or eliminate the electoral college in the future, so that small states would no longer receive extra electoral votes out of proportion to their population. But until this change is made by Constitutional amendment, the Electoral College is still the law of the land.

8) Myth: The Cook County, Illinois ballot from the home district of Gore campaign chair Bill Daley is just like the "butterfly" ballot used in Palm Beach County (reported by Don Evans, 11/8/00)

Fact: According to the Chicago Daily Herald on 11/10/00, the ballots in Chicago which had "facing pages" were judicial retention questions which only had two punch holes, Yes and No.

9) Myth: The election process in Florida outside of Palm Beach County was fair.

Fact: Actually, thousands of irregularities in over a half-dozen categories have already been reported:

-Ballots ran out in certain precincts according to the LA Times on 11/10/00.

-Carpools of African-American voters were stopped by police, according to the Los Angeles Times (11/10/00). In some cases, officers demanded to see a "taxi license".

-Polls closed with people still in line in Tampa, according to the Associated Press.

-In Osceola County, ballots did not line up properly, possibly causing Gore voters to have their ballots cast for Harry Browne. Also, Hispanic voters were required to produce two forms of ID when only one is required. (source: Associated Press)

-Dozens, and possibly hundreds, of voters in Broward County were unable to vote because the Supervisor of Elections did not have enough staff to verify changes of address.

-Voters were mistakenly removed from voter rolls because their names were similar to those of ex-cons, according to Mother Jones magazine.

-According to Reuters news service (11/8/00), many voters received pencils rather than pens when they voted, in violation of state law.

-According to the Miami Herald, many Haitian-American voters were turned away from precincts where they were voting for the first time (11/10/00)

-According to Feed Magazine (www.feedmag.com), the mayoral candidate whose election in Miami was overturned due to voter fraud, Xavier Suarez, said he was involved in preparing absentee ballots for George W. Bush. (11/9/00)

-According to tompaine.com, CBS's Dan Rather reported a possible computer error in Volusia County, Florida, where James Harris, a Socialist Workers Party candidate, won 9,888 votes. He won 583 in the rest of the state. [11/9/00] County-level results for Florida are available at cnn.com.

-Many African-American first-time voters who registered at motor vehicles offices or in campus voter registration drives did not appear on the voting rolls, according to a hearing conducted by the NAACP and televised on C-SPAN on 11/12/00.

10) Myth: "No evidence of vote fraud, either in the original vote or in the recount, has been presented." -- James Baker, representing the Bush campaign on 11/10/00, in a Florida briefing.

Fact: The election was held just last week, so of course many instances of fraud have not yet been substantiated. Even so, authorities have already uncovered clear evidence of voter fraud involving absentee ballots.

In Pensacola, Florida, Bush supporter Todd Vinson never received the absentee ballot he requested. According to the Associated Press on 11/9/00, it was determined after an investigation that this ballot was received by a third party, filled out with a forged signature, and then sent in. Assistant State Attorney Russell Edgar, when asked if other absentee ballots might had been intercepted, said, "I agree there may well be many more than just this one."

Much media attention on the issue of voter fraud has been focused on Wisconsin where cigarettes were offered to homeless people who were casting absentee ballots, presumably for Gore. The Gore campaign claims the cigarettes were not used to "buy" votes. The London Times has reported a suspected pro-Bush vote fraud operation in Miami involving over thousands of ballots (11/13/00).

11) Myth: It is highly unusual for judges to intervene after an election. Since the designer of a disputed ballot in Florida is a member of the party contesting the election, a legal challenge is impossible.

Fact: The most fundamental right of a democratic society is the the right to vote, and to have one's vote correctly counted. The legal system exists to ensure that people's rights are not violated. Whether the person committing a violation is a Democrat or a Republican does not affect how that violation should be treated.

Elections are ultimately struggles for political power so it should not be surprising that disputes are often resolved in court. Of course judges can be biased. That is why they must explain their decisions and why bad arguments can be overturned on appeal.

The Florida Supreme Court ruled in 1998, in connection with a disputed Volusia County election, that if there is "substantial noncompliance" with election laws and a "reasonable doubt" about whether election results "expressed the will of the voters" then a judge must "void the contested election, even in the absence of fraud or intentional wrongdoing." (source: Wall St. Journal, 10/10/00). The Journal indicated that there was little legal precedent for a revote in just one area where an election occurred. It would be more likely for a court to order a new election or to overturn the result.

These issues have arisen in other states as well. In a Massachusetts Democratic primary in 1996 for the US House, the election was so close after recounts that a judge had to make the final decision after examining some of the ballots that were incompletely punched, to determine the intention of the voter. The law clearly dictated that it was the will of the voter that mattered, and the candidate who was behind, William Delahunt, went on to win the final election. Call the Capitol Switchboard if you have any doubts at 202-225-3121.

12) Myth: Richard Nixon's party in 1960 did the honorable thing in not contesting the results of the election.

Fact: According to a column in the Los Angeles Times, 11/10/00, "on Nov. 11, three days after the election, Thurston B. Morton, a Kentucky senator and the Republican Party's national chairman, launched bids for recounts or investigations in not just Illinois and Texas but also Delaware, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania and South Carolina. A few days later, Robert H. Finch and Leonard W. Hall, two Nixon intimates, sent agents to conduct what they called "field checks" in eight of those 11 battlegrounds. In New Jersey, local Republicans obtained court orders for recounts; Texans brought suit in federal court. Illinois witnessed the most vigorous crusade. Nixon aide Peter Flanigan encouraged the creation of a Chicago-area Nixon Recount Committee. As late as Nov. 23, Republican National Committee general counsel H. Meade Alcorn Jr. was still predicting Nixon would take Illinois." Recounts continued into December, but did not succeed in overturning the result of the election.

13) Myth: "Governor Bush is still the winner, subject only to counting the overseas ballots, which traditionally have favored the Republican candidates" -- James Baker, Press Briefing, 11/10/00

Fact: The number of yet-to-be-counted overseas military ballots is likely to be in the range of 500 to 2000, based on the 1996 election in which there were 2,300 oversees absentee ballots overall, with roughly 60% of them coming from people enlisted in the military. According to CNN [11/10/00], the military overseas ballots that arrived before the election were already counted.

The biggest difference from 1996 is that Clinton -- who avoided the draft -- was running against Dole, a decorated military veteran.

In 2000 George W. Bush -- who avoided service in Vietnam and actually lost flying privileges in the Texas Air National Guard -- is running against Al Gore, a veteran who served in Vietnam.

It is just as possible that Gore will gain a few hundred votes from veterans as the other way around. It is also possible that the Gore ticket will pick up votes from Democratic diplomatic appointees, or temporary residents and dual citizens of Israel.

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-- Additional Footnotes, References (the web links may change; please report errors)

Myth 1: Time to Concede the Election 330 votes out of 6 million is 0.00550% of the vote. 1 vote out of 18 thousand is 0.00555% of the vote. A margin of 0.500000% of the vote is the Florida recount threshold.

Myth 2: Number of Spoiled Ballots. Article giving counts for invalidated ballots in 2000: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20001110/el/eln_florida_recount_63.html

Odd ballot prompts allegations of widespread mistaken voting by MITCH LIPKA, Orlando Sun-Sentinel, 11/9/00.

See Also: http://www.herald.com/thispage.htm?content/archive/news/yahoo/digdocs/058333

Myth 3: Ballot Definitely Illegal Those Florida Ballots Were Clearly Illegal http://www.latimes.com/news/comment/20001110/t000107677.html

Some Florida Ballots Illegal, Dems Say http://www.salon.com/politics/feature/2000/11/07/results/

Palm Beach Ballot Illegal, Demo Lawyers Say http://www.miamiherald.com/content/archive/news/elect2000/digdocs/095052.htm

United Press International Story: Eye doctors say palm beach ballot confused voters, 11/9/00, filed from Ft. Lauderdale at 4:11:44 PM EDT.

Access to Voting for Disabled and Elderly Citizens http://www.bazelon.org/expandvote.html#ADA

Myth 4: Hand Recounts Introduce Errors Seminole County delivers edge to Bush in recount http://orlandosentinel.com/elections/1110sem.htm

Election Workers' Nightmare http://www.latimes.com/print/asection/20001110/t000107857.html

William Galvin, interviewed on CNN, 11/8/00.

Texas State Law, HB 331 (also § 212.005(d), Texas Election Code) http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/tlo/75R/billtext/HB00331F.HTM

Hand recounts used in New Mexico, overturn Gore lead http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/12/politics/12RESU.html

Bush Signed Recount Rule in Texas http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/politics/AP-ELN-Bush-Texas-Recounts.html

Myth 5: Selective Recounts are Unfair Bush Team Prepares 'Scorched-Earth Plan' http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2830-2000Nov11.html

Volusia Elections Votes for Manual Recount http://orlandosentinel.com/news/1109vol.htm

Votes may be missed in Broward County http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/daily/detail/0,1136,36000000000124832,00.html

Myth 6: Palm Beach a Pat Buchanan Stronghold Numbers Add Up to More Dispute http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A64175-2000Nov10.html

State of Florida Party Registration http://election.dos.state.fl.us/pdf/2000voterreg/2000genparty.pdf

Buchanan Says Disputed Florida Votes Are Gore's http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20001109/pl/election_buchanan_dc_1.html

Bay Buchanan strongly denounced the Republican spin: http://www.latimes.com/print/asection/20001110/t000107856.html

Precinct-level Correlations Between Reform Party Candidate for Congress John McGuire and all presidential candidates, analysis by Paul H. Rosenberg" based on Palm Beach County data.

Myth 7: Candidate Should Win Without Electoral Majority see the US Constitution.

Myth 8: Butterfly Ballots in Chicago Too Cook ballot designer says his ballots are not like Florida's http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/cdh/20001110/lo/orr_cook_s_ballots_not_like_flo rida_s_1.html

Myth 9: Florida Respects Voting Rights Jesse Jackson Questions Florida Voting http://www.salon.com/politics/feature/2000/11/08/jackson/

On Pencils Vs. Pens NAACP Alleges Voter Suppression in Florida, Reuters, Wednesday November 8 http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20001108/pl/election_naacp_dc_2.html

Broward County Problems at Polls Prevent Hundreds from Casting Votes (Miami Herald) http://www.herald.com/content/today/docs/067127.htm

Ballots Ran Out According to St. Petersburg Times http://www.sptimes.com/News/110900/Election2000/Voters_statewide_say_.shtm l

More Irregularities Alleged http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/ELECTION_WatchdogPart50011 08.html.html

Voting Scrutinized All Over Florida http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/elect2000/pres/wire2/20001110/tCB00V049 5.html

Florida Ballot Quirks Scrutinized http://cbsnews.com/now/story/0,1597,247897-412,00.shtml

Florida Cops Accused of Harassing Black Voters http://www.apbnews.com/newscenter/breakingnews/2000/11/08/vote1108_01.html

Election Day Allegations Could Form Basis for Legal Challenges, Experts Say http://www.cnn.com/2000/LAW/11/08/recount.challenges.pol/index.html

Moving Toward a Lawsuit http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/ELECTION_WatchdogPart6 001108.html

Many Mistakenly Removed from Voter Rolls http://www.motherjones.com/news_wire/floridavote.html

Xavier Suarez Involvement in Absentee Drive http://www.feedmag.com/templates/daily.php3?a_id=1389

Florida Recount Continues As Lawsuit Threats Rise http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20001109/pl/election_florida_dc_15.html

NAACP Says Fraudulent Calls Surface in Florida (before election) http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20001106/pl/election_naacp_dc_1.html

NAACP Alleges Voter Suppression in Florida http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20001108/pl/election_naacp_dc_2.html

Voting Irregularities, Chaos Reported in Florida http://cnews.tribune.com/news/story/0,1162,oso-nation-82375,00.html http://cnews.tribune.com/news/story/0,1162,sunsentinel-elections2000-82375,0 0.html

Voters Statewide Say They Had Poll Troubles http://www.sptimes.com/News/110900/Election2000/Voters_statewide_say_.shtml

Widespread Voting Irregularities Marred Presidential Results in S. Florida http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/daily/detail/0,1136,36000000000124144,00.html

After Bizarre Vote, Experts Question Whether Election Process Is Fair http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/daily/detail/0,1136,36000000000123968,00.html

Dade's Ballot System Delays Tally http://www.herald.com/content/today/docs/098048.htm

New York Times, "African Americans Demand Revote" http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/11/politics/11BLAC.html

Registered Voters' Names Failed to Appear on Voting Rolls http://cnews.tribune.com/news/story/0,1162,oso-nation-82375,00.html

Myth 10: No Vote Fraud in Florida Transcript: James A. Baker III on Fla. Recount, Nov. 10, 2000 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61032-2000Nov10.html

Associated Press story was available as of 11/9 at: http://www.usatoday.com/news/vote2000/pensacola.htm

Wall St. Journal Article http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB973813954697912953.htm

NAACP hears testimony of Florida voting irregularities Breed, Allen G, Associated Press Wire, 11/11/00. (Hearings Televised on CSPAN, 11/12/00)

Pensacola Ballot Prompts Fraud Investigation http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/110900/Local/ST001.shtml

Cigarettes Distributed for Gore Vote http://www.themilwaukeechannel.com/mil/election2000/itsyourvote/stories/-200 01105-134550.html

Gore camp demands FBI inquiry http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,34812,00.html

Myth 11: Judges Stay Out of Elections PHIL KUNTZ and DAVID S. CLOUD, "Neverending Election Draws Questions About Electoral Process, Constitution," WALL STREET JOURNAL, 10/11/00 http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB97386780919735330.htm

Yale Law Students CAMPAIGN FOR A LEGAL ELECTION http://commons.somewhere.com/rre/2000/RRE.Florida.Common.Law.a.html

Myth 12: Nixon Didn't Fight in 1960 It's a Myth That Nixon Acquiesced in 1960 http://www.latimes.com/news/comment/20001110/t000107675.html

The Fallacy of Nixon's Graceful Exit http://www.salon.com/politics/feature/2000/11/10/nixon/

Was Nixon Robbed? (October 16 article) http://slate.msn.com/HistoryLesson/00-10-16/HistoryLesson.asp

Senate History Interview (1987): The "Good Old Days" Were Not http://www.senate.gov/learning/learn_history_oralhist_shuman4.html

“Illinois Republicans Lose,” New York Times, Dec. 13, 1960, p. 23. “Texas Recount Denied,” New York Times, Dec. 13, 1960, p. 23.

Myth 13: Republican Absentee Advantage Texas Air National Guard http://www.democrats.com/display.cfm?id=172

See also: London Sunday Times, June 18, 2000, "Bush flies into an air force cocaine cloud," online at http://www.sunday-times.co.uk

Rich Cowan (rcowan@lesley.edu) with help from Paul Rosenberg, Dan Kohn, Jonathan Prince, Marc Sobel, subscribers to the Red Rock Eater News Service and the electronic mail discussion florida-recount-discuss@egroups.com, and the Yale Law School Student Campaign for a Legal Election, 127 Wall Street New Haven, CT 06511 -- spin@pantheon.yale.edu